Yole Predicts 35 GWp Of Solar Cell Manufacturing Equipment Purchased By 2017
the PV industry will be led by equipment and material innovations. As only a
part of the whole existing crystalline silicon manufacturing capacity is suited
to the production of very high efficiency solar cells and modules, Yole
Développement assumes that a part of the manufacturing capacity will be shut
down or used at low utilization rates, and new capacities suited for very high
efficiency products will be added. This provides an opportunity for PV
equipment manufacturers to find customers despite existing production
overcapacities.
"About 35 GWp of new solar cell manufacturing equipment
will be purchased by 2017", says Milan Rosina, Technology & Market Analyst,
Photovoltaics at Yole Développement.
According to Yole Développement's latest report, "Crystalline
Silicon PV: Technology, Equipment & Materials" current technology and
market consolidation are revealing an increased interest in high-efficiency
cell and module approaches. Yole Développement provides details on how high PV
efficiency enables product differentiation and cuts on manufacturing and system
costs and "Levelized Cost of Electricity" (LCOE).
In order to reach very high cell and module efficiency
(respectively over 19% and 16%), specific technology approaches, new materials
and new equipment are required. Materials such as quasi-mono silicon wafers and
new equipment (ion implant tools, amorphous silicon deposition tools) are
reviewed and their potential is analyzed. The factors that have to be taken
into consideration during the development of new equipment for very high
efficiency solar cells are also discussed.
Thanks to incentive policies, in the past the
photovoltaic market experienced double digit average annual growth rates and
more than 27GWp were installed during the year 2011. This resulted in a massive
increase of the manufacturing capacities to cover the increasing demand.
However, recently, lowered incentive mechanisms resulted in a market demand
lower than expected. In consequence, high manufacturing overcapacities and
module inventory result in a strong price pressure on the PV market and finally
leads to technology and market consolidation. PV cell and module manufacturers as well as PV
material and equipment suppliers are facing hard times and are trying to find a
solution on how to keep their business profitable.
"Today, the key
objective of PV manufacturers is no longer to increase their production
capacities, but to differentiate themselves from their competitors in an
overcrowded market thanks to added value products (with lower price, higher
efficiency"¦)" explains Milan. Innovations in the field of PV equipment,
materials & manufacturing processes are thus more important than ever.
As photovoltaics becomes a commodity market and many
different PV products are commercially available, the old vision of a PV
technology development in which thin-film PV technologies would progressively
increase their market shares has become obsolete. Through the last years, the
technology progress in crystalline silicon (c-Si) technology has surpassed all
expectations. Today, the c-Si modules are available at prices close or even
lower than $1 per Wp, comparable with those of the thin-film PV modules, while
their efficiency is significantly higher, providing the system level a premium
value. The main advantages of c-Si as well as the potential for further
improvement of c-Si manufacturing costs and performances are discussed here in
detail. The technology performance and applications are compared with thin-film
PV technologies (amorphous silicon, CdTe, CIGS).
