Shipments of USB Flash drives are currently less than 10mn units a year, according to market researcher Semico Research - but by 2006 they will have mushroomed to nearly 50mn units, it is forecast. "The utility of this device has resonated with computer users, and adoption is growing quickly," says Jim Handy, director for the non-volatile memory sector.

Shipments of USB Flash drives are currently less than 10mn units a year, according to market researcher Semico Research - but by 2006 they will have mushroomed to nearly 50mn units, it is forecast. "The utility of this device has resonated with computer users, and adoption is growing quickly," says Jim Handy, director for the non-volatile memory sector. "Some of the early acceptance can certainly be attributed to novelty, but the greater part seems to be the convenience and speed of programming." Key to success is not only creating a new market, but invading an existing one. USB drives are most likely to replace other forms of mass storage, mainly 1.44MByte floppy drives that have been stuck at that capacity since the late 1980s. The new market contains up to 100 participants. Semico is predicting that the number of these participants will decrease dramatically as has happened in the DRAM market. "Low barriers to entry seem to attract all sorts of businesspeople who drop out of the market once the rules of engagement are better defined," comments Handy.

Unit shipments of micro-electro-mechanical-system (MEMS) devices could increase from 5.2mn in 2001 to 189.4mn in 2006, according to In-Stat/MDR. "Unfortunately, commercialisation could be hindered by the inability to capture several promising applications due to a method patent that has recently come to light," reports Marlene Bourne, a senior In-Stat/MDR analyst. Over the same period, revenues are expect to increase from $124.3mn to $613.5mn.